The Mothership

Happy Monday, friends, and welcome to the Mothership.  It's been quite a month of January, and the site is now in its fourth week of operations.  Thanks for your continued readership, and for being down since Day 1.  Today, we'll talk about some Bowls.  One important one (Senior Bowl), and one unimportant one (Pro Bowl).  And who knows?  We may dabble in some other stuff too.  That's how we do, right?  Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1.  Senior Bowl week was interesting.  I appreciated NFL Network's decision to televise some of the practice sessions, even if I think they showed too much of Mike Mayock talking, and not enough of what the players were doing.  When it gets down to it, it's still more information than fans have had in the past.  I watched all the televised practice sessions, and the game itself, and as you'd expect, I have some thoughts.

a.  I will start with the QBs, because they got the most attention during the week.  None of them looked very good to me in the game.  I thought that Zac Robinson looked the best, but he struggles to drive the ball down the field with velocity, and I doubt he'll ever be more than a backup.  I was particularly disappointed with Sean Canfield, who I liked in his college games, but who looked like he'll never have enough arm for the NFL.

Jarrett Brown showed a good arm, but he is a project, because he only played one season, and that was in a run-heavy, shotgun-spread offense at West Virginia.  I saw some people loving on Dan Lefevour on Twitter Saturday, and when I watched the game Sunday on DVR, I wondered what they were looking at.  I didn't think he looked particularly good throwing the ball.  Tony Pike looked like a borderline player, with a below average arm, and only average accuracy.  He did move well, though.

Tim Tebow looked pretty much like I expected him to.  If you watched some of the practices, he improved as the week went on.  The fact is, most of the things he was doing were new to him.  He did short-arm a couple throws during the game, but I thought that those were footwork related, and not indicative of a lack of arm strength.  When he gets his feet right, he can drive the ball.  It's just that the footwork that the plays he is running called for is different than what he's used to.  He's definitely not going to be ready to start on Day 1 in the NFL, but with good NFL coaching, he'll be fine eventually.

b.  I am not sure why RB Anthony Dixon was used as a FB in the game.  I think he definitely projects to being a HB in the NFL.  I liked how he looked in the practices, and it kind of confused me why he'd only get one carry in the game.  I think he can be a 1,000 yard back in a tandem at the NFL level.  He'll remind you of Shonn Greene.

c.  I liked how LeGarrette Blount looked too.  Somebody is going to buy low on him, and get themselves a good football player.  You may remember, he's the RB from Oregon who punched a trash talking opponent from Boise State, and then his own teammate, at the end of the opening game of the season.  He was subsequently suspended for most the rest of the regular season, but he did what he was supposed to do, and was reinstated eventually.  The stupid chatter about character will abound, but he can play.

d.  There was nobody in this Senior Bowl who I think can play LT at the NFL level.  Ed Wang from Virginia Tech and Ciron Black from LSU were trying to play the position Saturday, and both got completely exposed.  Neither has the feet for it.  Wang is a marginal RTO, and Black looked more like a Guard to me.

e.  Idaho G Mike Iupati is going to be a guy who plays in 10 Pro Bowls.  I hadn't seen much of him before this week, but he's the best looking Guard prospect I can remember.  Mike Mayock had a good point that he needs to become less grabby with his hands, but he was getting major push against a couple excellent prospects in Dan Williams and Terrence Cody.  When Iupati played LT, he didn't look as good, but there's no reason to try to stick him out there.  I think he's eventually going to be the best Guard in the NFL.  As a Broncos fan, I'd be perfectly happy if they picked him 10th or 11th, because he's going to end up being one of the 2 or 3 best players in the Draft.

f.  This game had a ton of quality on the defensive line, which is reflective of the larger Draft class.  I really liked what I saw from Brandon Graham, who I never noticed that much when he was at Michigan.  He was tremendously effective as a pass rusher, and none of the pretenders playing LT could handle him.  I think Graham could play either OLB in a 3-4, or DE in a 4-3.

I also liked the jobs that Geno Atkins (Georgia), Jared Odrick (Penn State), Dan Williams (Tennessee), and Tyson Alualu (Cal) did.  Williams, particularly, looked like a first round caliber NT prospect.  He's not quite as quick as BJ Raji was last season, but he's stouter, and he showed very impressive lower body strength.  Broncos fans will be scared off by his name, as he shares one with their first round pick from 1993, who was a bust.  (That was the worst first round I can ever remember.)

g.  I saw a lot of good play from WRs in the Senior Bowl.  I'm known for being a big Riley Cooper fan, and he looked good in his route running, and blocking.  Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard did a lot with a lot of opportunities.  I think he projects as a slot guy more than an outside player, but he's worth a second round pick.  Jeremy Williams from Tulane showed some good skills, too, and Andre Roberts of the Citadel made a great catch over the middle.

h.  There was a lot of love for RB-WR Dexter McCluster of Ole Miss, and it's deserved.  He's a very dynamic player.  You have to remember that he'll always be a part-time player in the NFL, though.  He can be a 12-15 touches guy, and make a difference for a team.  If I had a good team, and didn't have a lot of pressing needs, I'd take him in the second round.  I think he can do everything that Reggie Bush does for the Saints.

i.  The Senior Bowl had a couple really good LBs in it, playing for the North team.  I think Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) and Daryl Washington (TCU) both look like first round caliber players.  I would say that they're both 4-3 guys, but I really liked what I saw from them, from a perspective of instincts, coverage, and sure tackling.  A guy who I thought was disappointing was Darryl Sharpton (Miami).  He took some bad angles, and missed a few tackles.

j.  I saw good secondary play from several players.  I really like CBs Kyle Wilson (Boise State), Javier Arenas (Alabama), and Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State).  CB Patrick Robinson (Florida State) had good moments and bad moments, which is just like him.  He has excellent physical skills, but he gets beaten a lot.  Riley Cooper beat him badly when Florida played Florida State this year, and got him a few times in practice too.  Robinson is just too inconsistent.

At Safety, I didn't see as much quality play.  Larry Asante (Nebraska) looked bad, and Kyle McCarthy (Notre Dame) tackled pretty well, but looked slow.  Potential first rounder Taylor Mays (Southern Cal) got an interception, but he missed a couple tackles going for big hits, and I'd call his performance mixed.  I'll be curious to see if he runs as well as he is reputed to.  I have my doubts that he's really a 4.4 guy, based upon the speed he plays at on video.

2.  There was also the Pro Bowl game on Sunday.  I watched/listened to it Sunday night, as I was writing the bulk of this, but I don't have a lot to say about the actual game.  It was fun and entertaining, and the game was sold out, for a change.  The crowd seemed to be pretty engaged, and the players seemed to be having fun, which had to make the NFL happy.

I want to talk a bit about marketing, all star games, and mullets, two of which are among my favorite topics to discuss.  First, a story.  I went to the grocery store Sunday, and there was a dude with a hellified mullet, Jared Allen caliber, wearing a Castrol GTX jacket.  This is in Cleveland, Ohio, proper, not even a suburb.  My first thought, was, wow, this guy and I are very different kind of people, and I have to think that we live within a couple miles of each other, assuming that we're both shopping at our local Giant Eagle.

I've shared some thoughts about mens' fashion before, and if you're wondering, I still don't like epaulets, even if a few people I respect do.  One of my fashion rules is that I don't like clothing with large or obvious branding on it.  Really, something like the Polo horse is about as branded as I like to go, and I even resent that.  I feel like I am providing a product endorsement for free, and as a guy who has been asked to endorse a few products (through my limited fame as a writer), I am not in the business of free promotion, unless it's a friend or something.  Ralph Lauren and I don't have much of a relationship.

So, here's mullet man, rocking a Castrol GTX jacket.  I forgot my phone at home, which was annoying, because I really wanted to take a picture.  I don't like NASCAR, really, so I don't know if that jacket's branding was related to a specific driver, or not.  I can't imagine another reason you'd wear the thing, though.  Really, NASCAR fans are different from me, which is what I am taking the long way around to getting to.  I give the France family, who founded NASCAR, a lot of credit, for knowing their fan base, and being brilliant marketers.

Those people (meaning NASCAR fans) are just much more receptive to product placement than I am, and I don't think I would have ever been the guy who'd imagine that you could get people to accept product branding so prominently in a sport.  You don't see that in any other sport, above little league baseball, where Integrity Dodge sponsors the Braves in the 9-10 league, and the Dodgers in the 11-12 league.  When Jimmie Johnson wins a race, he's contractually obligated to mention Lowe's a certain number of times.  When Peyton Manning wins a game, he doesn't mention Lucas Oil, or any of the Colts' other advertising partners.  The average NFL fan wouldn't have much tolerance for it, and the NFL knows that.

Knowing your fan base, or in more general marketing terms, your customer, is very important, maybe the most important thing of all.  I am not the biggest fan of All Star games, generally, but the NFL has long had the worst one, and it's no contest.  The Pro Bowl has been a dud for as long as I can remember.  There are several reasons for this.  First, playing the game in Hawaii is a mistake.  Honolulu is closer geographically to Tokyo than it is to Cleveland, and two thirds of NFL fans reside in the Eastern and Central time zones.  That distance makes me feel disconnected when the game is played there.  It's tremendously expensive to travel there, so the average fan never gets to go to the game.  I bet that trip cost $5,000 for 2 people.  The players like Hawaii, but the location is disadvantageous for fans, and it's high-cost for the NFL.

The other thing is, the game should never be played after the Super Bowl.  It's anti-climactic there.  Playing it during the bye week is a good first step, but I would argue that the reason for the success of the other leagues' games is that they are played in mid-season, when interest is high, and the League can most benefit from some hoopla.  The NBA All Star weekend is huge.  It's arguably a higher-interest event than the Finals.  That's who I'd be emulating if I were on the NFL marketing team.  Even Major League Baseball and the NHL have good setups for their All Stat games.  

Now, I know what you're going to say.  You can't play a football All Star game in midseason, because somebody could get hurt in a meaningless game.  I got something for you.  It's not a meaningless game.  It's a key marketing event for the overall enterprise, and it contributes to driving a lot of revenue.  That is the attitude that has to be taken, like the NBA does.  Players must play if they're selected, unless they have been missing regular season playing time due to injury.  The League needs you to drive revenue, and grow the brand, so shut up, and play.

As for injuries, I had this conversation with my brother Chris the other day.  Why does the perception exist that it's more likely that a player will get meaningfully hurt in a football game than a game in other sports?  It's not actually the case.  I only found really good data on the NHL, but 12.5% of possible man-games were lost due to injury in 2008-2009.  Compare that with Football Outsiders'  measurement of Adjusted Games Lost for the NFL, which calculates out to an average of 7.5% of possible man-games being lost.  (That's actually conservative, because I used 45 as the number of men per team, and not 53, while injury reports make no distinction.)  Baseball Prospectus has injury data, but I am not willing to pay for their content, and I didn't find anything good on the NBA, but I expect that they'd be the highest of all.  A lot of ACLs get blown out in basketball, and a lot of games get missed due to nagging injuries.

The NFL game is the most physically violent, but the players are also by far the best protected by equipment.  I don't think the risk of significant injury in a football game is any greater than it is in any other sport, and in fact, I think it is probably less.  There will always be an idiot reporter who'll fret about the possibility of one star player or another getting hurt, but frankly, the NFL did fine without Tom Brady last season.  The game has to be bigger than any one player, and in the end, it is.

The NFL should be running its Pro Bowl in midseason, say around Week 10.  It should be held in different NFL stadiums, and not be subject to any weather restrictions like the Super Bowl is.  Players should be required by the CBA to participate if selected, unless they are legitimately injured.  The NFL should create an extra bye week for the game, and call it Pro Bowl week, and do a lot of festivities around it.  I would recommend skills challenges like the NBA's dunk contest, and maybe a rookie showcase game.  There are a zillion things you could do, and it would be a cash cow, both for the host city, as well as the NFL.

If the NFL made this change, they could dedicate that whole week to getting their players to be more well-known by casual fans.  NFL players wear helmets, so less is immediately accessible about their personalities to the common fan.  I liked what the NFL did with mic'ing a lot of players for the Pro Bowl Sunday night.  If more people were watching, more Q rating could be created.  This is an idea whose time is coming, trust me.  I think Roger Goodell is a smart marketing guy, and making this change is the smart marketing play.  Honolulu will feel scorned, and the players might grumble, but the players will come around when they see what a spectacle the game can become, and what that can do for their personal earning potential.

I think Ed Hardy clothes are bad looking, and over-priced, but they aren't aimed at me.  A lot of people are into it, you know?  It's like a lifestyle, or whatever.  People like me just don't understand.  So, I shouldn't be too surprised when I am in my local Target, and I see this:

I would never spend $3.99 on 3 ounces of strawberry gummies, despite the presence of a temporary tattoo, but some kid with low self esteem, a blowout haircut, and an orange spray tan is probably all over them.  He can't wait to show his girlfriend or boyfriend.  Christian Audigier knows his audience, and he actively tries to create and expand it.  There are kids with low self esteem that aren't spray tanning yet, after all.  

NASCAR knows that many dudes with mullets will let themselves be walking billboards, and they use that knowledge to get money from their advertisers.  The NFL has to know that nobody currently cares about the Pro Bowl game.  The ratings are going to show that more people did this year, than in recent years, and it's going to reaffirm what Goodell already knows.  The move this year was smart, but it was only a good first step.    

3.  I continue not to be convinced that Brandon Marshall is going to be traded away from the Broncos.  I expect that he gets tendered, and that nobody signs him to an offer sheet.  There may be trade inquiries, trying to get him for less than a first and third round pick, but the Broncos don't need to do a deal like that.  If he gets a big offer, they can evaluate whether or not to match, based on the money involved.  Maybe then, they take the #1 and #3. Giving the guy away, though, isn't going to happen.

For his part, Marshall said the right things at the Pro Bowl, and he played with good effort in the game.  People like to try to figure out a set of rules for how to predict the manner in which Josh McDaniels is going to do things, but I think that boat gets missed a lot.  I've seen speculation that because he traded a crybaby like Jay Cutler, he'll do the same with Marshall.  I think what gets missed there is that McDaniels never seemed too warm to Cutler's ability, whereas he knows that Marshall is a great player.  Marshall may stay, and he may go.  What you can be sure of is that McDaniels, who holds all the cards, is going to do what he thinks gives the team its best chance to be successful.  I have a hunch that he keeps Marshall, and that the Broncos aren't drafting Dez White in the first round.  I could make a case that getting a #1 and a #3 for Marshall is solid value, but I don't think it's quite enough, in the final analysis.

4.  I want to thank SirSam for the new Mothership graphic.  He also did the site header, and is graciously helping me with all graphics for the site.  He was the graphics guy at my former site, Mile High Report, before some time constraints led him to step back from that role.  He volunteered to help me here, and I really appreciate his good work.

It's 12:34, so I'm out for now.  We're closing the month of January, starting tomorrow at work, and our acquisition by another Fortune 500 company closes next week too.  Crazy times in my office.  Tomorrow, I'll be talking Super Bowl, and airline deregulation, and what it has to do with football.  Be there.  Until then, have a great Monday.