The Mothership

Happy Monday, friends, and welcome to The Mothership.  We've got a couple more teams going fishing, and we'll explore their situations.  We'll also devote some early thought to the Super Bowl matchup.  Finally, since the Senior Bowl is this week, we'll get into that a little bit, and possibly also consider the less important Pro Bowl.  The NFC Championship game isn't over yet, as I start writing this, but I want to get a couple thousand words written before midnight.  Ready..... BEGIN!!!

1.  Both championship games were very interesting on Sunday, after the first two weekends had a lot of blowouts, and a few uninteresting close games.  I would venture to say that the only entertaining game in the first two weeks was Arizona vs. Green Bay.  It was a good Football Sunday, and we'll start by thinking about the losers.

a.  New York Jets - First of all, let me reiterate that anybody who made it to their conference championship game had a good season.  That said, this was not the year New York planned to be in Super Bowl contention, so I think they were already playing with house money on Sunday.  They wanted to win, and I know they believed that they could, but they're still developing into what they ultimately want to become.

First things first, since the MSM will always focus on the QB position first.  Mark Sanchez generally has a ways to go as a decision maker, but he showed a lot of poise during the recent run, and it has to make Jets fans very excited for the future.  He had a good day on Sunday, and the two TD passes he threw each showed a quality that the elite QBs possess.  He showed outstanding touch on the deep ball on the first, and impressive toughness and accuracy under pressure on the second.  My concerns about his ability to play in bad weather aside, it's pretty clear that the Jets have their guy of the future.

This is going to sound counter-intuitive, but given the way they clearly want to play, if the Jets are going to take the next step, they really need to improve their personnel on defense in a couple places.  Since they likely can't sign free agents, other than to replace their own, that improvement will probably need to come from the Draft.  I alluded to this yesterday, but the Jets are running a scheme that is very much like the Buddy Ryan 4-6, despite it nominally being a 3-4.  What they really lack right now is the elite pass rusher, so they have to come with a lot of numbers, from a lot of directions.  Their sack leaders this season were Calvin Pace with 8, Shaun Ellis with 6.5, and David Harris with 5.5.  After that, the next guy was Safety Jim Leonhard with 2.5, and a few guys with 1 or 2.  

The team only had 32 sacks, which is a low number for an elite defense.  It tied with 5 other teams for 18th in the NFL.  Rex Ryan needs his Terrell Suggs, and Vernon Gholston is clearly not that guy.  They'll be picking about 21st in the Draft, and can get a guy like Sergio Kindle or Ricky Sapp there.  This is a Draft which appears to be rife with pass rushing talent, which bodes well for their prospects of getting one.  

The Jets really have had a lot of success with coverage this season, but they had a big blow Sunday when they lost Donald Strickland.  Drew Coleman and Eric Smith looked pretty bad at key moments.  If I were Mike Tannenbaum, my second priority would be improving the depth in the secondary.  Darrelle Revis is obviously excellent, and I am a bigger Lito Sheppard fan than most, despite his early bust Sunday, and lack of playing time in the game.  Dwight Lowery has been pretty useful as a nickel CB, but I'd like him better as a dime guy.  

I would expect Braylon Edwards to be back on a 1 year tender, and the whole offensive line to return.  The only offensive player I probably don't see returning is Thomas Jones, but Shonn Greene really emerged as a possible future star late in the season, so that loss is probably manageable, especially with Leon Washington expected to get healthy.  The Jets could use a slot receiver, but it's a lower priority.

In all, the Jets are an ascendant team, and they've had a very good season to build on for the future.  I was checking out their blog on SB Nation, Gang Green Nation, to get the pulse, and everybody seemed to be pretty upbeat for the future, despite the expected laments.  I think that orientation is appropriate for their fan base.  They need a few pieces, but they've set themselves up nicely to be in the mix consistently over the next few seasons.

b.  Minnesota Vikings  - There's less reason to feel great for the Vikings, because they gave away a chance to play for a championship on Sunday.  They had a lot of chances to win the game, and their offense repeatedly came up small in big spot.  It was team-wide, from Brett Favre, to Adrian Peterson, to Mothership Favorite Percy Harvin, to their whole offensive line.  Their offensive coaching and game management was lousy too, but that's a story for tomorrow.

The Vikings had a successful season, but when your QB is a rental, how good can you feel about next season today?  Brett Favre indicated that he had an idea what his plan was for next season, which to me, sounds like he may retire.  Say he does.  Then you have to wonder if he decides right as training camp ends to report again.  It's pretty clear and noticeable that he has wanted to play the last few years, but hasn't wanted to participate in the offseason program or training camp.  The best move for the Vikings may be to just announce that he is exempted from those activities, and that he'll return right before the second preseason game, if he indicates that that's what he wants to do.  You take a brief optical hit from the blowhards who naively say that everybody should be treated the same, but you avoid a whole offseason of speculation.  Favre has always had his own rules, and other players haven't seemed to generally hold it against him.  He's Brett Freaking Favre, after all.

If Favre tells the team that he genuinely doesn't want to play anymore, they're in obvious danger of moving backward, based only on the QB position.  I usually clown the Target booksellers for making everything about the guy under center, but in the case of the Vikings, it's pretty appropriate.  If they want to make an inspired move, they ought to look at trading for Kevin Kolb.  I'd give up a late first rounder for him, and I'm pretty sure that Donovan McNabb is going to continue to be an Eagle for the next 5+ years.  Kolb was a high second round pick, so the Eagles would essentially be recouping the price they paid for him, and the Vikings would be getting a guy who has been around a very similar NFL offense for 3 years.  It's win-win, to me.

Adrian Peterson needs to work on ball security in a big way, but let's not all start thinking he's a bad player all of a sudden.  That's nowhere near true.  I do think the Vikings offensive line could be improved, and the only player on it who I like very much is LG Steve Hutchinson.  LT Bryant McKinnie and RT Phil Loadholt are overrated, and only so-so.  C John Sullivan is just okay, and RG Anthony Herrera is well below average.  I think with the increased pass-happiness of the team this season, that the unit regressed pretty seriously in the running game this season.  More commitment to running the ball would engender more success at it.  Firing out, and knocking guys backward is something that takes repetition and muscle memory.

The Vikings could stand to improve their secondary, especially at CB.  It's a minor complaint, but they could use one more credible guy to play in sub packages, assuming that Antoine Winfield comes back at full health next season.  I've come to like SS Tyrell Johnson, but Madieu Williams is a guy I could take or leave at FS.

The Vikings are a good team, and will continue to be, but the QB position is the big question mark.  If Favre returns, chances are the team is right back in the mix next season.  If he doesn't, they'll want to determine that early on, and make a strong move, because it would be a shame to go back to Tavares Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, coming off such a near-miss.  2009 was a good season, but they need to move toward having some certainty for 2010.

2.  The Super Bowl matchup promises to be the most interesting in years, on paper, at least.  I think the Saints defense can give the Colts some trouble, because they can rush the passer with four men, and drop seven into coverage most of the time.  Frankly, I liked the Vikings' chances a little better, but I can make a case that it's manageable for the Saints.

I wonder how the Colts defense will matchup with the Saints offense.  Their strength is their sure tackling and pass rush from both edges, but Drew Brees does such a great job at getting the ball out quickly, and he has so many good options to throw it to, I am a little dubious of the Colts.  To beat them, you typically have to be able to string a series of positive small plays together, and I think that the Saints might be better equipped than any other team to do so.  

I will have a lot more on this in the next two weeks, and I haven't even begun studying it in depth, but my initial thought is to like New Orleans in a close game.  We'll see where I come out once I've thought more about it, and looked at it more closely.

3.  It's Senior Bowl week in Mobile, Alabama, as I mentioned yesterday.  I plan to be there next year, hopefully with a SmarterFans.com Draftnik with me.  This year, I will have to rely on the practice notes of others, and watch the game on TV.  First of all, let me criticize the Rams, Chiefs, Browns, Raiders, Bills, and Jaguars for not having their staffs there to coach the players.  The opportunity is extended to the worst team in each conference, in order.  According to the NFL, each of those teams either declined the opportunity, or didn't have their coaching staff situated enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

I can see the Chiefs and Bills not feeling their staffs were situated, but the rest of them should have taken the opportunity.  Instead, the Lions will coach the North, and Dolphins will coach the South.  Most of the best senior prospects will be in Mobile, so this is a very big deal.  I haven't heard of a lot of declined player invitations this year, which is a bit of a departure from past norms.

Here are ten players who I am interested in seeing how they turn out this week:

a.  Tim Tebow  QB  Florida - I think he's going to be a first round pick, but whether he ultimately is or not, I have absolutely no doubt that he'll succeed as a starting QB at the NFL level.  A lot of people who don't know what the hell they're talking about, and some others who do disagree with me, but I am 100% sure I am right.  My reputation is all over that, and I am entirely comfortable with that.  The question with Tebow will be does he respond well to NFL coaching, and improve throughout the week.

b.  Riley Cooper  WR Florida - I am a Florida fan, as most know, and I've been a big fan of this guy since he was a special teams ace as a freshman.  He didn't get a lot of balls as a WR until his senior year, but he had a very nice season, and a dominant bowl game performance.  He's big, physical, has great ball skills, and is the best blocking WR in this Draft class.  The combine is where he'll really shine, because I expect him to run in the 4.3s at 6-3 and 220 pounds there.  This week, the question is how he does in reading coverages, and running NFL style routes.  That's the only real question about his ability, in my opinion.

c.  Vladimir Ducasse G  UMass - Ducasse is an FCS player, but he's in competition with Idaho's Mike Iupati (also in town) to be the first Guard picked in April.  Ducasse is huge, strong, and allegedly very athletic.  Having never seen him on tape, I want to get a good look at him in the game.

d.  Jerry Hughes  DE-OLB TCU - I have seen quite a bit of Hughes, and I think with a good week, he can solidify himself as a late first rounder.  I think he plays a little too high, but that's coachable.  He projects as a strongside 3-4 OLB to me, similar to LaMarr Woodley.

e.  Mardy Gilyard  WR  Cincinnati - I am a big Gilyard fan, especially as a kick returner.  He has the same question mark as Cooper, from a college scheme perspective.  He didn't run a full route tree, and how he does in that area, will go a long way to situating him on draft boards.  I think he can be a top half of the second round guy.

f.  Myron Rolle  S  Florida State - As well as Rolle did academically at FSU (which is very, very well) he never fully lived up to expectations as the guy who was once the number one high school recruit in the country.  He was an honorable mention All-ACC type at his best.  He has two master's degrees, including one from Oxford in medical anthropology, but he's now been away from the field for a year.  He's going to be drafted, but I don't expect it to be until the middle rounds.  How he shows in Mobile will be key for his prospects.

g.  Dexter McCluster  RB-WR  Ole Miss - McCluster can play, but he's really tiny at 5-8, and 165 pounds.  He's going to get a chance in the NFL as a Darren Sproles type specialist, and he has an opportunity in Mobile to show the toughness and versatility that he's known for.

h.  Trent Williams  T  Oklahoma -  The Mock Draft guys have always liked Williams a lot better than I have.  I remember him struggling mightily against Florida in the 2009 National Championship game, and I highly doubt that he has NFL Left Tackle feet.  He reminds me a lot of the Rams' Alex Barron, actually, a guy who's too slow-footed for the left side, and too soft and thin for the right.  I reserve the right to change my mind, as always, but I really want to see how he does this week.

i.  Taylor Mays  S  USC  - Mays is the only one of these 10 players I have seen in person (against Notre Dame in 2009) and I found him to be wanting.  He has LB size and CB speed, but he takes more false steps than you'd like, and every time I see him, he's a step late in coverage.  I wouldn't call him a first rounder, based on his senior year, but with a  good week, he could do a lot to help himself.  I am sure he'll be one of the most watched players in Mobile.

j.  Javier Arenas  CB  Alabama - I like this guy, as both a coverage player and return man.  He's only 5-9, but I expect him to be a second rounder.  He can cover NFL slot players, and he'll be a top 10 punt returner right away, which has a lot of value.

I've gone past my new midnight rule (it's 12:19 as I write this), and I don't want to be late for work in the morning, so I am going to call it a night.  I didn't get to the Pro Bowl yet.  Boo hoo, huh?  I hope you enjoyed this, and will come back tomorrow for more.  Have a great Monday.